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Initially, Donald Trump appeared to take a strong position concerning Ukraine. Following issuing statements of "serious repercussions" in August if Vladimir Putin persisted blocking ceasefire negotiations, Trump eventually enacted substantial penalties on Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action significantly impacted the Russian leader's capacity to finance his aggression in the region.

However, with his newly presented 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly created by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU participation, he has apparently gone back to his Russia-friendly position.

Benefiting Invasion

The former president's initiative would essentially favor Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing the country's political freedom in peril. Although strong statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal effectively undermine that very independence. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business past, Trump persists to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a simple territorial dispute, like ceding Putin a part of Ukrainian territory will appease the president. However, Russia's war is not simply about controlling a damaged area of economically weakened area in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's political system – and Putin's apparent goal to weaken it so it stops serves as an enticing model for the Russia's population of the responsible government that Putin's growing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Territorial Surrenders

While maintaining in position the currently separated Ukrainian provinces of these areas, Trump's plan would require the nation to give up all of Donetsk region. Beyond benefiting Russia with land that its forces have been unsuccessful to capture in exceeding a decade of fighting, this concession would leave Ukraine's military defenses severely undermined.

Donetsk is the place of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified military defenses that constitute a critical barrier to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, providing Russian forces a unobstructed route to the capital in case he later opt to restart the war.

Defense Reductions

Furthermore, in a move that would facilitate renewed fighting easier for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its armed forces from their current approximately 800,000 soldiers to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's initiative sets no similar constraints on Russia's military.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's attempts to characterize the nation's chosen by the people leadership as radicals, the proposal asserts: "All Nazi belief system and actions must be condemned and prohibited." Apparently to underscore this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump sets no requirement that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting elections in his own country.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the proposal has the Russian Federation pledge not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". But considering that Putin has violated comparable treaties in the previous instances – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to honor the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a handback of seized land in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should anyone believe Russia this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on western protection assurances. While the proposal warns of a "strong unified armed reaction" if Russia restart its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the specifics range from unclear to alarming. The plan would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also prevent Nato members from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, thereby preventing the reassurance force, likely headed by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to deter Putin from restoring his diminished military, rearming, and attacking again.

World Concern

An additional parallel deal reportedly would provide the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any later "significant, planned, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault threatening the peace and security of the Western nations." This indicates a defense action. But in contrast to a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's primary deterrent against renewed invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would depend on the commitment of alliance members, including Trump, to react with force to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not