Moving from Reluctant Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”