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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|