UK Diplomats Cautioned Against Armed Intervention to Topple Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed documents show that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military action to remove the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Show Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Isolation Strategy Considered Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The paper adds: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We should work out a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.